How to write a visionary paper (Part 1: Understand the future)
- Nadine Rinderknecht
- Apr 12, 2022
- 6 min read
Updated: Mar 16
To develop proactive and far-sighted solutions, it's helpful to have a vision. It enables you to find your way in the chaos (aka the world) and recognize developments others would oversee. This post reveals how to create your own vision of society and law.
This Part 1 allows you to understand the future – before you shape it. You will discover how to analyze past predictions, understand (mega)trends, and deal with uncertainties.
Level: advanced
Content
Part 1: Understand the future
Part 2: Create the future (coming soon!)
Starting point
We live in a world that's moving faster and faster, constantly gaining in diversity and complexity. More and more objects are becoming "smart", communicating frenetically with each other and exchanging data. New technologies are coming onto the market along with innovative business models and – ultimately – great opportunities but also challenges for society. In such a world, it's easy to get lost, to lose sight of your goal – or to set your sights on a goal at all.
However, if you aim to develop effective and far-sighted solutions, an overarching goal is essential. At the center of these considerations stands a vision. Around it orbit solutions that, in the best case, are consistent with each other as well as far-sighted, proactive, and effective. But how do you get to this center?
This Part 1 shows you why and how to learn from history and past "visions" (Step 1). Then, a good knowledge of larger (Step 2) and smaller (Step 3) trends serves as inspiration for your own vision. Finally, you shouldn't delude yourself into thinking that you can foresee the future (to a great extent) (Step 4). In Part 2 you will learn how to develop and apply your own vision.
Step 1: Learn the lessons of past futurists
Before you dive into the future, it is useful to learn from the mistakes and errors of past visionaries. Often, visions expressed in the past have not occurred for a variety of reasons. If, however, you are aware of these reasons, you may anticipate the course of history a bit more accurately, use it as inspiration, and build your visions on it.
The following video is a useful introduction to learning from past mistakes (in German):
The video shows that our idea of the future is often a "mere" extremized present: A present development goes faster, higher, and further. But in essence, it's still the same (incremental development). What humans hardly foresee, however, is a qualitative leap into the new (radical or even disruptive development). For example, the video shows mechanical technologies such as cleaning machines or harvest workers that still have to be controlled and monitored by humans. However, today's technologies are autonomous, "smart", and digitalized. Accordingly, this qualitative leap couldn't have been foreseen. Or as it's accurately described in the video:
It seems like people couldn't think outside the box back then. All the ideas were futuristic, but they were also just futuristic versions of things that already existed. You could think ahead, but you couldn't really think up anything new. (translation, from 4:20)
As a result, the future is linear only for a certain period until a disruptive development emerges that – from today's perspective – could hardly have been expected. Quantitative developments are therefore by and large predictable, but they should not be overestimated. On the other hand, the occurrence of qualitative developments (whatever they may be...) is often underestimated. "I think there's a world market for maybe five computers", predicted Thomas Watson in 1943 as Chairman of IBM. In the end, things turned out slightly differently...
The possibility that an idea that is "crazy" and "absurd" from today's perspective could one day become mainstream should never be ruled out. "Never say never". It's these disruptive innovations that will have a fundamental impact on our society.
Step 2: Understand the dynamics of megatrends
An unclouded view far into the future isn't achievable. And yet there are certain trends that:
last for several decades,
affect all areas of society (e.g., politics, economics, ethics, everyday life),
sooner or later encompass the entire world, and
are multilayered and multidimensional.
These so-called megatrends at least give an idea of the contours of the next years and decades. The zukunftsInstitut, from which the definition of megatrends used here originates, has drawn up a megatrend map showing the 12 most important megatrends and their respective individual phenomena. Below you can find a list of them. If you want to learn more about a megatrend, simply click on the link and read the corresponding article on the website of the zukunftsInstitut (in German):
According to the zukunftsInstitut, this map is a powerful tool for planning the future – or for a general forecast of the future. Although megatrends can also develop differently than expected, this can be a useful tool to get a rough idea of the future and be inspired by it.
Step 3: Spot smaller trends
Before you create a vision, you should also know the smaller trends. Importantly, unlike megatrends, these are more volatile and therefore less reliable. At the same time, however, they can also better concretise your vision of the future.
You can find smaller trends, for example, in the current Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies of 2021 (and also in the Hype Cycles of the last few years):
In short: On the Hype Cycle of the research and consulting company Gartner, Inc. you see which technologies are likely to be on the way to a hype, which are currently hyped ("Peak of Inflated Expectations") and which are already becoming mainstream (however, as you can see, Gartner is cautious and places most technologies before or at the hype. After that, it looks pretty empty...). If you want to learn more about the Hype Cycle, check out Steps 2 and 3 of How to find innovative topics.
In addition, note what futurologist Roy Amara says: "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run [see Hype or Peak of Inflated Expectations] and underestimate the effect in the long run [see Plateau of Productivity]" ("Amara's Law").
You can find other developments that may occur in the next 10 years in this video (in German):
Overview of potential developments over the next 10 years:
Self-driving cars,
ITER (nuclear fusion reactor),
In vitro meat,
CRISPR/Cas9 and designer babies,
Implanted technology and cyborgs, and
Advancement of AI.
AI and its various positive and negative future scenarios are also the subject of the next video (yes, I'm a fan of this channel… yes, again, only in German). I highly recommend to watch this video as it offers a versatile and visually well presented insight into 6 possible scenarios of AI:
Overview of the 6 scenarios:
Scenario 1: the world leader,
Scenario 2: the manipulator,
Scenario 3: the land without worry,
Scenario 4: the loss of control,
Scenario 5: the robo sapiens,
Scenario 6: the emancipation.
However, as the video shows, the future can also be a combination of some or all of the scenarios. It should be noted, however, that the negative aspects often predominate in these scenarios. However, history shows that humanity has often overcome major challenges. These mostly negative scenarios should therefore not be understood as pessimistic visions of the future, but as warnings. In this way, we can start thinking about their risks today so that the negative scenarios do not materialize at all.
Step 4: Find your way through the fog of future uncertainty
Even if you have a sound knowledge of minor and major trends, you shouldn't be under the illusion that the future can be (accurately) predicted. Only the uncertain is certain – unless you are a clairvoyant or a disruptive entrepreneur. The former, however, does not exist and the latter does not foresee the future – they create it.
The best way to predict the future is to create it. – Abraham Lincoln
Whenever a new (disruptive) technology comes to market, it may have major and "insurmountable" drawbacks. Even if you personally can't imagine that the advantages could ever outweigh the disadvantages, don't believe in the failure of the technology. Don't overstate the risks and understate the opportunities. If the technology has some potential, you can be sure that at least one entrepreneur will find a way to bring about mostly opportunities. This could lead to a greater diffusion of the technology and ultimately integration into the daily lives of many people (as happened with the PC or the Internet). Technology pessimism doesn't help, it only blocks the view of the opportunities.
Stay tuned for the second part of this post. Create your own vision! 😎
Hello, I'm Nadine Rinderknecht
Founder of Blankpage. Experience in academia and law firms. Master of Law (University of Zurich) and other stuff.
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